As we move toward 2026, individuals and businesses across all sectors are preparing for a year shaped by regulatory change, tax reforms, shifting economic pressures and new reporting expectations. From M&A activity and insolvency trends to sector-specific challenges, businesses will need to balance rising costs with opportunities created by greater stability and emerging innovation.

This is the third of three prediction pieces, Part 1, Part 2.

Retail & Wholesale

The outlook for retail in 2026 is one of caution, but there are clear opportunities for agile retailers. Online shopping will keep expanding, yet the real winners will be the brands that push beyond basic omnichannel and deliver truly seamless experiences where customers can jump effortlessly from social to store to app.

As shoppers shift toward value-for-money rather than low cost alone, retailers can capitalise on occasions, affordable treats, and categories like health and beauty that offer accessible indulgence. AI will continue reshaping the industry by sharpening pricing, predicting demand, and streamlining supply chains, though it also introduces new risks if used without proper oversight.

Social and live commerce will surge, giving brands new ways to reach customers through creators, video, and real-time engagement. Meanwhile, rising operating costs and unpredictable supply chains will require smarter forecasting, more flexible sourcing, and tighter inventory control.

Cybersecurity will become a front-line priority as more customer data, integrations, and digital touchpoints heighten exposure to fraud, breaches, and ransomware, making strong security, authentication, and data governance essential for trust and continuity. Sustainability will also gain momentum, with shoppers and regulators demanding greater transparency and circular practices.

Overall, 2026 will reward retailers who stay agile blending tech-driven efficiency, strong cyber resilience, and authentic customer experiences with responsible, future-ready practices.

Technology

In 2026, the tech sector is poised to remain a major driver of innovation and economic resilience, fuelled by rapid digital transformation and sustained global demand. Companies will face tighter R&D tax relief requirements, demanding stronger documentation and evidence of qualifying activity, alongside increased scrutiny of revenue recognition, particularly for subscription and AI-based models, prompting finance teams to bolster controls.

Data and cybersecurity reporting obligations are expected to grow, affecting audits, valuations, and due diligence, while sustainability reporting, including Scope 3 emissions, will gain prominence, add complexity but creat8e green-tech investment opportunities.

Key challenges include ongoing talent shortages in AI, cybersecurity, and quantum, potential funding difficulties for early-stage firms due to market volatility, rising cybersecurity risks, and ethical and governance considerations around AI adoption.

Nonetheless, significant opportunities exist: AI will continue as the largest growth area, quantum technologies may approach commercial applications, government incentives like EMI, EIS, and R&D support will drive innovation, and demand for cloud, cybersecurity, and data-analytics solutions will persist amid digital transformation, with strong potential for global expansion.

Transport & Logistics

2025 was a turbulent year for the transport and logistics sector, driven by softening global demand, fragile supply chains, rising costs, technological changes, and sustainability pressures that forced companies to rethink long-established operating models.

As the sector enters 2026, UK companies face heightened complexities from economic uncertainty, regulatory change, and technological disruption while needing to maintain high service levels.

Global growth is subdued, limiting freight demand and potential growth, while geopolitical risks such as tariffs, shifting trade agreements, and export restrictions create uncertainty for international supply chains, often requiring rerouting, re-sourcing, or holding buffer inventory.

These pressures increase unpredictability and costs, making agility essential, and presenting opportunities to expand regional hubs and offer cross-border solutions, positioning logistics providers as end-to-end partners in nearshoring transitions.

Talent shortages, particularly among drivers, warehouse staff, and operators, further strain capacity, reliability, and costs, making staff retention, structured career pathways, training, and flexible scheduling critical.

Meanwhile, regulatory and governmental demands for reduced emissions, cleaner fuels, carbon tracking, and greener supply chains require significant investment in vehicles, technologies, or retrofitting, increasing operating costs. Rising e-commerce and delivery expectations add further complexity to last-mile logistics, which must contend with environmental restrictions, traffic, and operational challenges.

Customers and companies alike are increasingly focused on environmental impact, with solutions such as electric fleets or incremental ESG measures potentially generating revenue rather than being purely administrative costs. Collaborative approaches—including shared last-mile fleets, co-warehousing, pooled distribution hubs, and collaborative freight networks—offer opportunities to reduce costs, emissions, and capital intensity while opening new markets.

Forensic Accounting and Valuation Services Predictions

In the Forensic Accounting and Dispute world, there is likely to be a continuation of the shareholder disputes that have kept the market busy in the past year. Claims of unfair prejudice appear to be increasing, at least where Expert Valuation is being sought. There is no sign that breach of warranty claims and earn-out disputes, arising from M&A activity, is slowing.

The increased focus on litigation funding and group claims will remain, and there is likely to be more developments in the newsworthy matters in the Courts at the moment. A number of collective claims are due to proceed to trial or judgment in 2026. Of particular interest will be the design and operation of redress schemes.

Fraud remains a big topic, with AI tools assisting practitioners but also fraudsters, making it more sophisticated and challenging to detect. The fresh “failure to prevent fraud” offence may also feature in breach of warranty claims.

Valuation activity linked to tax and share schemes is expected to increase in early 2026. IHT planning, which includes share valuations will be a focus ahead of the anticipated changes coming into force in April 2026.

The increase to EMI thresholds set out in the recent Budget will allow larger businesses to use EMI schemes, potentially driving a rise in demand for EMI valuations that are recommended on adoption. We anticipate a downturn in EOT transactions following the tax relief changes announced in the Budget.

Looking ahead to 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, it is clear that businesses will face a mix of challenges and opportunities driven by tax changes, regulatory shifts, technological developments and wider market uncertainty. Preparation and informed decision-making will be essential to navigating this landscape.

Whether you are managing financial pressures, planning a transaction, seeking growth or strengthening long-term resilience, our team is ready to support you and help you achieve your strategic goals in the year ahead.

Get in touch with our specialists:

Martin Hamilton Partner and Head of Retail Sector, Menzies LLP

Sam Goodsell Partner and Head of Technology Sector, Menzies LLP

Sophie Said Partner and Head of Transport & Logistics Sector, Menzies LLP

Matthew Haddow Partner and Head of Forensic and Valuation Services, Menzies LLP

Georgina Davies Director of Valuation Services, Menzies LLP

Menzies is a leading UK business advisory and accountancy firm with international reach. We help accelerate your ambition, with a proven track record supporting both businesses and individuals to successfully reach their goals.

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